10C of Warming? - A Frightening Scenario for Alaska

A recent article by Fred Pearce in this week's New Scientist raises the possibility of up to 10 degrees Celsius of warming in northern regions (even as the rest of the world rises by only 3C in the next 100 years).
See - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127011.500-arctic-meltdown-is-a-threat-to-humanity.html?page=1
That warming is caused by the release of up to 100 billion tonnes of methane trapped in permafrost which is now melting at rates not previously predicted. Early indications of accelerated methane release due to permafrost melt are already being recorded in Siberia and may also explain some of the faster rates of change in Alaska.
Pearce goes on to describe both the local implications such as massive infrastructure damage as well as the linked effects on global climate - for example, this may cause an end to the Asian monsoons that would be catastrophic for the billions of people who rely on current rainfall patterns to sustaain food production!
Pearce does not comment on implications for marine ecosystems, but if we extrapolate the observations reported last week by Deborah Williams, then one could expect to see profound impacts on key ecological processes and species throughout the Northern Pacific. Imagine, for example, the impacts on salmon spawning in rivers where the number of non viable spawning days doubles, then triples... and then estimate the impacts on all Alaskan ecosystems and Alaskan families of having less and less and less salmon available...
Because there is no more pressing issue facing our North Pacific marine ecosystems, I have spent time this week providing inputs to various Working Groups involved with the adapatation strategy for the State Climate Change Sub-Cabinet (see http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/).
Those groups are beginning to finalize recommendations for a comprehensive State-wide response to climate change - the final report is due in late June, 2009 and will then likely be made available for public input.
As an organization, it will be critical for the ASLC to step up and be both a resource and a voice for Alaska's marine ecosystems and for the people who depend on healthy marine ecosystems for their livelihoods and culture. We are working on establishing a Marine and Coastal Climate Change Learning and Adaptation Center as a vehicle for helping marine systems and coastal communities adapt to a new climate and more acidic and warmer ocean ecosystems. Stay tuned for details...