Sea Level Rise deserves more attention

On March 10th I attended a fascinating discussion in the US Capitol Building on Sea Level Rise (SLR) that was part of the Consortium on Ocean Leadership  2010 Public Policy Forum.  Most of the presentations were pretty much as expected, with ever finer scale models showing what vulnerable coastlines such as the outer banks of Virgina will look like if sea level rises another 3 feet by 2100 (as is predicted under most models) - those maps demonstrate some dramatic challenges for property owners, coastal industries and local governments in those areas!

The discussions took on a decidedly different tone when retired Rear Admiral Tim McGee spoke of the national security implications - some 30 military bases would be directly affected by a 3' SLR!  See the presentations on the CoL website for further details - http://www.oceanleadership.org/ocean-policy-legislation/public-policy-forum/2010-public-policy-forum/presentations/

From a global geo-political perspective, sea level rise and other climate change-related issues become even more profound when one considers impacts on the world's poorest nations. 

In 2008 I ran a simulation exercise for the UK, New Zealand, Canadian and Australian Governments on climate refugees displaced by different sea level scenarios - a one meter (3') rise in sea level displaces 43 million coastal residents in South and East Asia alone - after seeing how hard it was for the world to deal with much smaller numbers of people displaced by hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis in recent years, one seriously questions just how the world might cope with such unprecedented resettlements and migrations.

A World Bank report released this week highlights those nations at risk globally and gives insights into what is at risk.

The report is available online via: http://issuu.com/world.bank.publications/docs/9780821381267.

Although the report is not solely focused on ocean systems, the report is a cogent reminder of why we should care more about the role of  oceans as climate regulators and how they are changing -  for example, according to the authors:

• Oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change and will likely bear the greatest burden of impacts.
• Oceans removed about 25 percent of carbon dioxide emitted by human activities from 2000‐2007.
• Oceans absorb more than 95 percent of the sun’s radiation, making air temperatures tolerable for life on land.
• Oceans provide 85 percent of the water vapor in the atmosphere, these clouds are key to regulating climate on land and sea.

The report also has some excellent examples of approaches being employed by ocean researchers and managers  and discusses lessons learned over the past decade from some nascent adaptation strategies that have been developed in World Bank projects.  For example, the Bank's Coral Reef Targeted Research and Capacity Building for Management (CRTR) program is a proactive research and capacity building partnership designed to improve the scientific knowledge needed to strengthen management and policy to protect coral reefs. The CRTR is filling crucial knowledge gaps in targeted research areas such as Coral Bleaching, Connectivity, Coral Diseases, Coral Restoration and Remediation, Remote Sensing and Modeling and Decision Support.

Those types of investments in building 'social capital' to address climate change mirror knowledge centers such as the recently announced Department of Interior Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center being developed in Anchorage.

I encourage all concerned with the future of the oceans, indeed the future of humanity, to have a closer read of the World Bank report and to stay abreast of developments in these new centers - this is a rapidly developing and increasingly field that demands our increased attention.

State of the Birds 2010 Points to New Needs for Avian Research, Education and Adaptation Strategies

How many Alaskans enjoy seeing birds?  I'm not sure that has ever been measured accurately, but I suspect that an analysis of winter bird seed sales or an attitudinal survey of the general population would likely yield surprising results - for example, I attended a bird rescue fundraiser in Wasilla last year and was amazed by the constituency that all species of birds have there - and that was not just due to the impressive influence of the host, the irrepressible and flamboyant self-professed bird lover, Mr Whitekeys! 

I have also participated in various bird counts in Alaska and been amazed by the lengths and heights birders will go to to add to their life lists... as my Yorkshire mate Dave would say - its amazing how far twitchers will go!

Based on this new report released last week, it looks like birders will have to go to even greater lengths to enjoy the lesser numbers and diversity of birds in the USA as habitats and climate change. The new report was made public by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar - The State of the Birds: 2010 Report on Climate Change (http://www.stateofthebirds.org/) makes alarming reading.  The report, a collaboration of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and experts from the nation’s leading conservation and avifauna research organizations, shows that climate changes will have (as the graph below indicates) an increasingly disruptive effect on bird species in all habitats, with oceanic and Hawaiian birds in greatest peril.

Relative Vulnerability by Habitat
(red = high, yellow = medium, green = low)

This graph is obviously somewhat generalized and I am still puzzled why arctic and alpine species were lumped together, but the overall trends are still very disturbing, particularly in relation to species we work with on education and research programs here at the Alaska SeaLife Center.
For example, the report notes that:

• Oceanic birds are among the most vulnerable species because they don’t raise many young each year; they face challenges from a rapidly changing marine ecosystem; and they nest on islands that may be flooded as sea levels rise. All 67 oceanic bird species, such as petrels and albatrosses, are among the most vulnerable birds on Earth to climate change.

• For bird species that are already of conservation concern such as the golden-cheeked warbler, whooping crane, and spectacled eider, the added vulnerability to climate change may hasten declines or prevent recovery.

Our pioneeering work with the recovery team responsible for Steller's Eider (see http://ecos.fws.gov/docs/recovery_plans/2002/020930b.pdf) is indicative of the level of effort that will need to be mounted more widely and quickly for a host of bird species if the current rate of climate change continues.

This new report will be very helpful in identifying both immediate priority species and overall research, adaptation and recovery research needs as the SeaLife Center moves forward with our 2020 Strategic Plan .  I encourage all staff and partners to read it and provide sugestions to our avian research and education team on how we might play a more effective role in adaptation and management efforts.

The New World of Arctic Fisheries

Last year I attended the first International Arctic Fisheries Symposium which was held at the Captain Cook Hotel in Anchorage from 19-21 October.  The conference bought together scientists, indigenous leaders and policy makers from around the Arctic.  The meeting sought to:

• initiate international discussions for conserving and managing future fisheries in the Arctic Ocean, including managing migratory, transboundary and straddling fish stocks.
• identify current management regimes in the Arctic region and how relevant scientific  and fisheries data can be used to inform future management decisions.
• identify gaps in existing management regimes and potential steps to address those gaps, as well as the need for improved scientific programs to support conservation and management of future Arctic fisheries.

The symposium proceedings and presentations have just been published and are well worth a read through - they highlight the profound range of changes already being experienced in the Arctic (from massive changes in ice cover to introductions of new species), the potential for significant further ecological, bio-physical and social changes and the need for a greater level of international coperation in research, planning and management of Artic resources. 

For example, the science panel of the symposium panel observed that "climate impacts are more than temperature change – they include more fresh water discharges into Arctic water with rivers open for longer periods of time; more wind, ocean acidification; increase in ocean and land methane discharges; longer warm season in the fall and spring that will change ocean/sea algae blooms and sea life production cycles; and species movements from warm to colder waters including the potential introduction of predators and diseases".

Full details are available online at:
http://www.nprb.org/iafs2009/

Engaging with the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trust Council - a key to securing long term science and education capacity

As many of you know, the Exxon Valdez Trust Council (EVOSTC) played a major role in the establishment of the Alaska SeaLife Center (ASLC) – they provided about half of the initial capital ($26m) of funding to build the facility and established a ‘chain of control’ over the center’s operations that defines the basic rules on how operate today.

The Council has worked over the past 20 years on a comprehensive strategy of funding research and restoration activities that target areas and communities affected by the spill. The Council comprises 3 Federal Trustees and 3 State Trustees and is advised by both a public advisory committee and a science advisory committee. ASLC and UAF staff member, Dr Lori Polasek was recently appointed to the PAC representing the public at large. Dr Bob Spies (formerly ASLC Board chair and Science Director) serves on the SAC – there are also many other partners of the Center involved in these committees.

The Council recently made the decision to refocus its research activities. “The Council, recognizing that the restoration funds remaining from the Exxon Valdez settlement continue to diminish, seeks to narrow and refine the scope of the Council’s restoration efforts and to enable a more discrete and efficient funding mechanism by which to direct these remaining funds. In the NOI, the Council proposes to focus their restoration efforts to five defined restoration categories: herring; lingering oil; long-term monitoring of marine conditions; harbor protection and marine restoration; and habitat acquisition and protection” (see http://www.evostc.state.ak.us/universal/documents/NEPA/NOIRelease.pdf for full details). 

The EVOSTC will be conducting a public meeting on their proposals in Seward on March 16th in the Rae Building from 6-8 pm.

During our recent Deep Blue 2020 strategic planning discussions we identified this process as a key opportunity for the Alaska Sealife Center to more directly engage with the Council in better understanding the impacts of the spill on affected communities (both biological and social). We will therefore be attending the Seward meeting and submitting a detailed set of comments in writing by the EVOSTC deadline of April 1st to explain to Council representatives and members why there is a strong case for the ASLC to play a greater role in understanding spill impacts and building a stronger capacity for future response.

I encourage all interested ASLC staff and friends in the community to attend and to make comment to help the Trust Council representatives understand just how significant their investment has been in delivering:

• extraordinary scientific impact – 209 peer-reviewed publications by ASLC researchers to date and counting!

• unparalleled capacity to respond to injured and dead marine wildlife throughout Alaska – we have handled more than 100 marine mammals alone!

• unrivalled capacity to educate visitors and students about Alaska’s seas – 1.74 million people so far!

• jobs, experience and education to more than 750 employees and some 300 interns as well as hundreds of volunteers over the past 12 years – the Center is now the largest private employer in Seward and one of the largest in the Kenai Peninsula.

Perhaps most significantly, the initial capital investment of $26m approved by the EVOSTC in 1994 to build the center has generated ongoing capital and operating investments totaling $164m – a return of more than $6 for every $1 invested!!

We are asking the Trustees to consider options for “nurturing the goose that has lain these golden research, education, conservation and strandings response eggs” by directing funds for future targeted research to a network of capable local institutions in Cordova, Seward, Homer and Kodiak working with the UAF School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences. Details are still being resolved, but long term support of research and education activities at the SeaLife Center and in these other institutions would be a very significant and enduring legacy of the Trust Council. It would enable both a long term understanding of spill impacts and assist communities in the affected area to be better prepared to deal with future spills and other marine environmental changes.

I encourage all staff, members, supporters and friends of the Alaska SeaLife Center to both attend the Seward meeting next week or to otherwise let the Trust Council know that you support the proposal to keep investing in the great science and education work done by institutions such as the Alaska Sealife Center within spill-affected communities.

ASLC Input to US Arctic Research Commission

This afternoon I provided public comments on the US Arctic Research Commission (USARC) White paper on Arctic Oil Spill Prevention and Response.  The Commission has invited stakeholders to help develop a path forward to reinvigorate U.S. efforts in this area.  A Commission "white paper" urging expanded research coordination and funding has been posted at:
http://www.arctic.gov/publications/usarc_oilspill_2-24-10.pdf

A copy of our full comments will be posted on the USARC website, but the main thrust of our comments related to the need for additional emphasis on wildlife response in oil spill contingency planning, research and response. 

"The Alaska SeaLife Center supports the USARC’s proposal to invigorate oil spill research in the United States, particularly in Arctic and Subarctic regions where there is relatively little existing knowledge, capacity and experience to respond effectively to an oil spill incident and some uncertainty about the most effective and efficient prevention options. However, we also believe that given the experience of the Exxon Valdez oil spill, in addition to the general planning and research efforts proposed by the Commission, there is an equal need to establish and maintain an on-ground marine mammal and seabird response capacity that comprises both dedicated hardware and staff and which is informed by well-targeted biological research".

We propose to continue to work closely with industry, government, science partners and local communities to establish and maintain that key capacity and so strengthen the unique wildlife response role that the Center plays currently  in Alaska.

Must Have Google Gadgets!

I was checking out a cool new Google Gadget sent by a colleague in Switzerland this afternoon that enables you to receive a new Red Listed species daily direct to your Google page - kind of like an FBI most wanted series!  The more I checked into it, the more such cool gadget sites I discovered - its amazing just what is out there to give sealife lovers a daily encounter with some new marine life news or media that I didn't know was online!  There is even a Seward site (see below)!

I have listed a random selection of the gadgets below that may appeal to ASLC staff and members - none are endorsed by me (the descriptions are directly from the google gadget site), but I hope they whet your appetite to check them out and let us know if we should maybe think about a making available SeaLife center gadget?

Species of the Day
In recognition of 2010 as the International Year of Biodiversity and to increase awareness of the enormous variety of life on our planet, we have launched the IUCN Red List 'Species of the Day'. Each day in 2010, a different species will be featured, including a photo and a link to a PDF full of information, including a description of the often serious threats it faces. Both charismatic and obscure species will be featured, providing an insight into the astonishing level of biodiversity that exists. This project is a joint project of the IUCN Species Programme and the Species Survival Commission (SSC). It has been made possible through the support of UNEP and ARKive. Install it now!
http://sotd-gadget.googlecode.com/

Exploring America's Oceans
We all know that the United States is a vast country with a huge variety of terrain, climate and geological features, but few of us may take time to consider the 4.4 million square miles of ocean under U.S. jurisdiction. Explore America's oceans from the comfort of your home without even having to get your feet wet.
http://www.google.com/

Fun Aquarium (Maximizable)
By funkyGamesinfo4@gmail.com
You can play with the application for fun as well as just watching it. You can customize the number and species of fish, and also the behavior, make them blow air bubbles, and switch between daytime and nighttime. For educational purposes, you can accompany the fish by their names. Keywords: aquarium, fish, fishtank, game, games, goldfish, shark, swordfish, tropical, water.
http://hosting.gmodules.com/

SharkBreak 78 - Online Aquarium
Clock - Sponsored by Aquazone® - Your Ultimate Digital Aquarium! - SharkBreak helps raise awareness for marine life conservation and ocean preservation, through a relaxing, creative, and fun online environment. Relax. Take a Shark Break!

http://www.sharkbreak.com/

Whales and Marine Mammals
Fantastic, Spectacular Photos of whales and marine mammals taken in their natural habitat. You will love seeing breathtaking photos of powerful whales, beautiful sea otters and playful dolphins. See a new picture each time you refresh your page. If you love whales, marine life, the ocean, and Nature, you will love this gadget.
http://googlegadgetworld.com/

Seward Alaska live webcam!!
Live webcam from Major Marine tours Seward Alaska
http://www.myipage.com/


Birder's Expectation - North America
By Greg Sepesi
Birder's Expectation lists the likelihood (based upon eBird statistics) of species being sighted in your region during the current week.
http://hosting.gmodules.com/

Tracking Bird Movement
Valery Hronusov, a member on the Google Earth Community created this Google Earth file showing the migratory patterns of different bird species across Europe and Asia. Files such as this can be particularly useful for monitoring animal welfare of species which may carry communicable diseases such as avian influenza.
http://www.google.com/

Are there even cooler gadgets we might use?